Bitcoin's issuance is hard-coded. Its price is not. Price emerges where fixed supply meets probabilistic demand — adoption, liquidity, equity-risk appetite, ETF flows, holder conviction, leverage, and narrative. Structure repeats; exact dates and prices do not.
BTC spot
~$60.0K
SNAPSHOT · 6/30/26
vs model line
0.41×
discounted vs trend
vs cycle ATH
−52%
ATH ~$126K Oct'25
Real float
~14–16M
mined ~20.0M − lost
Macro tide
Tight
DXY 101 · 10Y 4.38%
Regime score
0.5 / 3
Deep Stress
Snapshot · verified factsSNAPSHOT 6/30/26
200-week SMA~$62K
First touch this cycleJun 4 '26
Fed funds (4th hold)3.50–3.75%
Fed chairWarsh (hawkish)
Spot BTC ETF · June−$4.06B
Fear & Greed~18 · Ext. Fear
Manual snapshot from the analysis session — not a live feed. Numbers move; re-verify before acting.
Open the mapMODEL
See BTC's full path 2009→2036 against the power-law cone, halvings, and every cycle top. →
Model · The math spine
The Cone
A power-law fit across all of BTC history — the centerline is trend, the band is where price has actually lived.
Power-law centerlineLived band 0.4×–2.2×Actual tops/bottomsYou are here
Where BTC sits todayCOMPUTED
Model centerline (2026)~$145K
Snapshot price~$60K
Position on band0.41× (low)
Fit quality (log-log)R² 0.916
Fit slope5.41
Read this honestly. The centerline is a long-term statistical fit (slope 5.41, R² 0.916) — not a price target. Price has historically ranged ~0.4× to 2.2× of the line. Sitting below the line means statistically discounted vs. trend, not "BTC should be $145K." Three clean cycles is a pattern, not a law. The forward cone is probability territory — the further right you read, the wider the real uncertainty. The dashed orange path is illustrative rhythm only, never a target.
Cycle tops are decayingCOMPUTED
2013 top7.6× trend
2017 top5.1× trend
2021 top2.5× trend
2025 top1.4× trend
Each cycle's peak lands closer to the centerline. This decay — a bigger adoption denominator each time — is the single biggest input to any honest forward view. It is why returns shrink cycle over cycle.
Time machine · The receipts of history
Timeline
Geometry · Written in the protocol
The Halving
This is the real geometry — not a chart pattern, an actual geometric series encoded in Bitcoin's rules.
The one true geometry
Every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) the block reward is cut exactly in half. That is a geometric series with ratio ½: 50 + 25 + 12.5 + … which sums to precisely 21,000,000 BTC. No forecast, no interpretation — it is deterministic code.
Block reward (÷2 each epoch)Cumulative supply → 21M
On a log axis the reward drops in equal steps — that even staircase is the constant ½ ratio made visible. Because the drops shrink geometrically, the cumulative curve flattens toward the 21M ceiling and never crosses it.
The full scheduleDETERMINISTIC
Reward and cumulative supply are exact protocol math. Dates are approximate (blocks average ~10 min but vary). "Now" sits mid-epoch 4 at ~20.0M mined (mid-2026), <960K left.
Scarcity ratio (Stock-to-Flow)COMPUTED
Now (epoch 4)~122
After 2028 halving~250
After 2032~505
Honest caveat: S2F is a real, computable scarcity metric — but S2F as a price model was invalidated (it ignores demand). Shown here as a scarcity gauge, not a price predictor. Scarcity sets the floor of possibility; demand decides the price.
The part most models skip
Issuance is deterministic — but reachable supply is not. Lost hard drives, forgotten keys, dead holders, and Satoshi's untouched stash mean the real float is far below 21M and slowly shrinking. This is a soft, estimated layer sitting on top of hard-coded issuance.
Mined vs. actually reachableESTIMATE
Mined (protocol)~20.0M
− Permanently lost~2.3–3.7M
− Satoshi / dormant '09–10~1.1M
≈ Real accessible float~14–16M
Actively traded~3.5M
Ranges, not exact math — that's why the badge says ESTIMATE, not deterministic. Aggressive studies (Cane Island) put lost as high as ~6M. Only ~3.5M is real day-to-day float — which is why relatively small flows move price so hard.
Where coins actually went missingESTIMATE
Mt. Gox (hack/bankruptcy)~200K
Howells' landfill drive~8K
Thomas' locked IronKey~7K
QuadrigaCX (owner died)~1K+
Provable burns~3.6K
Ongoing attrition is real too — roughly 1,500–2,000 BTC slip away per year (~4–5/day), though the rate is slowing as custody improves.
The one tail risk to flag: Satoshi's ~1.1M is classified dormant, not confirmed dead. If those coins ever moved, it would be one of the largest supply shocks in the asset's history. Low probability — but it's the reason "effective float" carries an asterisk, and why the supply side isn't 100% deterministic the way the issuance curve is.
One regime, every asset
Bitcoin isn't uniquely broken. A strong dollar + hawkish Fed is squeezing every non-yielding hard asset at once — gold, silver, platinum, BTC, and ETH all bleed together while cash pays ~4.38% risk-free. This is the macro veto, shown across the whole board.
Cross-asset scoreboardSNAPSHOT 6/30/26
Bitcoin (BTC)~$60.0K · −45% YoY
Ethereum (ETH)~$1,560 · ~69% off ATH
Gold /oz~$4,025 · −11% MTD
Silver /oz~$58.5 · −22% MTD
Platinum /oz~$1,566 · soft
Dollar (DXY)~101.2 · +4.6% YoY ↑
S&P / Nasdaq~7,354 / ~25.3K · near highs
The tell: the dollar is the only thing up. Metals and crypto fall together while equities hold — textbook "cash + yield win, scarce non-yielding assets lose."
Dollar & rates — the viseSNAPSHOT 6/30/26
Dollar index (DXY)~101.2 (13-mo high)
10-yr Treasury~4.38%
Fed funds target3.50–3.75%
Real yield (10Y − core PCE)~+1% (positive)
CPI / core+4.2% / +2.9%
PCE / core+4.1% / +3.4%
Fed posture (Warsh): ~3 hikes priced this year, ~62% odds of a September hike, and a new QT task force studying balance-sheet reduction. Positive real yields + a shrinking balance sheet = a liquidity headwind for everything that doesn't pay a coupon.
Global liquidity (M2)SNAPSHOT 6/30/26
Global M2 (majors)~$101.94T
— United States$23.05T
— China$52.20T
— Eurozone$18.71T
— Japan$7.98T
3-mo growth+1.4–1.7% (modest)
US M2 velocity1.411 (low)
The reservoir is full but not surging, and low velocity means capital is parked, not chasing risk. BTC tracks global M2 on a ~8–12 week lag — real but decaying (R² ~0.59). Oxygen present; ignition still off.
Metals — the confirmSNAPSHOT 6/30/26
Gold /oz~$4,025 · 8-mo low
Silver /oz~$58.5 · −22% MTD
Platinum /oz~$1,566
Gold : silver ratio~68.9
Gold is off ~28% from its Jan-2026 ATH (~$5,597); silver off its ~$121 Jan ATH. Even the oldest safe-haven is falling — which confirms this is a dollar / real-yield event, not a crypto event.
How this feeds the REGIME read: every input here loads Axis 1 — Liquidity / Macro: strong dollar, positive real yields, hawkish Fed, QT on the table, parked capital. That's why Axis 1 reads restrictive and the macro veto is active — the demand engine can't print "on" while the dollar and real yields are this tight, no matter how cheap BTC looks on the chart.
Why three, not ten. Most dashboards score ten signals and sum them — but in a risk-off event those signals all move together, so "9 of 10 green" overstates the truth. These three axes are the actual independent forces. The macro veto exists because cheap BTC cannot manufacture a bull market against draining liquidity — the tide has to turn first.
Bands: 0–1.0 Deep Stress · 1.0–1.7 Base Forming · 1.7–2.3 Engine Warming · 2.3–3.0 Engine On (>2.7 = blowoff risk).
Vault · The receipts
Sources
Curated canonical sources and live-feed hooks — the deep layer, kept off the home screen on purpose.
Design rule: the power of a command center is curated feeds + layering, not link count. A few dozen canonical sources you actually read beats 10,000 dead URLs. Everything below is a real, primary source.
Geometry discipline. The only geometry driving this app is the halving series (÷2) and the power-law fit — both code-verifiable. Fibonacci, Golden Ratio, and 3-6-9 are not used as signals or price forecasts anywhere here. They can serve as visual design language only.
Make it live (roadmap)NOT WIRED
BTC/ETH/SOL priceGOOGLEFINANCE / CoinGecko
Gold/Silver/PlatGLD / SLV / PPLT
Dollar / ratesUUP / TLT / ^TNX
M2 / CPI / PCE / FedFRED CSV (no key)
ETF flows / on-chainSoSoValue / Glassnode (key)
~80% of this runs free with no API key via FRED + GOOGLEFINANCE. Nothing above is connected yet — labeled honestly until it is.